Future Weather Forecast Is a Study in Extremes (Marla Cone)

  By Marla Cone -- Los Angeles Times

  Oct. 20, 2006 -- Much of the world, including the drought-plagued American West, will face more deadly heat waves, intense rainstorms and prolonged dry spells before the end of the century, according to a new climate change study released Thursday.

  Focusing not on averages but on extremes, the new research draws on nine climate models to predict what will happen if worldwide greenhouse gases keep increasing.

  Longer periods of high heat and heavy rainfall are predicted for nearly all areas by 2080 to 2099. In addition, dry periods will last longer in the Southwestern United States, southern Europe and several other areas, the scientists reported.

  "It's the extremes, not the averages, that cause the most damage to society and to many ecosystems," said Claudia Tebaldi, lead author of the report by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., Texas Tech University and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology Research Center.

  In California, if the predictions come true, it could mean a triple whammy: more temperatures soaring over 100 degrees, longer rainless periods and more powerful winter storms that could trigger flooding.

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