GEAB 178: When only weapons remain to communicate -- LEAP

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The monthly bulletin of the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP)

Oct 15, 2023

The transition from the world “before” to the world “after” that we have analyzed and commented on so much in our publications continues. This transition presents itself today in a violent light. The Russo-Ukrainian war marks a return of armed conflicts on the European continent. The lack of a quick solution demonstrates the difficulty in finding a solution that does not involve armed confrontation (see our article Ukraine 2024-2025: a multipolar peace is taking shape without the West). The brutal war between Hamas and Israel along the Gaza Strip and in Gaza itself says nothing else (see our article Israel-Palestine: the “der des ders”? (the “war to end all wars”) ), the same on the African continent where we observe the end of “the ancient world” (see our article: After the Middle East, the road to African emancipation). This is only the first part of what we have identified as “the return of the logic of force” (the Armenia/Azerbaijan, Serbia/Kosovo conflicts will be treated in a second part in our November edition).

These conflicts have at least two points in common; first of all, they are part of a long history. None of them began in 2023, and they reflect the recomposition of the irremediably multipolar global system, they are therefore governed by forces and interests that go beyond their borders.

It is this recomposition of the irremediably multipolar global system that explains these violent episodes. The international institutions established at the end of the Second World War were designed by the forces present at that time (United States, Western Europe and their allies). Today, having emerged from the bipolar, then unipolar, world, these forums for political discussion, intended to offer nations or groups of countries a space for negotiation capable of avoiding war and respecting the weakest, are dysfunctional. They still reflect today the conviction of what we call the civilized West (rather uncivilized at present) in its superiority and influence. But despite these supra-national structures, it is the strongest nation-states that regain the upper hand (see our article: Geopolitics: the return of the logic of force) and international relations are reduced to the simplest common denominator: violence.

However, these episodes of war should not blind our vision of the future. Our team remains convinced that they constitute a tragic and essential step in the much-needed resolution of these conflicts which have spanned several decades. They will be followed sooner or later by the establishment of a new system, better reflecting the multipolar world as it exists today. And as long as the majority of the world's states are not formally engaged in a world war, one could almost argue that humanity is not doing so badly.

These characteristics of a multipolar international political system which remain to be invented have led us to reflection. What better ways of communicating will we be able to invent? To find some answers, we looked at the future of international languages, still today largely dominated by English (or should we say Globish ) , and in particular that of the French-speaking world (see our article: The future of the French language: a collective responsibility that goes beyond the borders of the Francophonie). The importance of mastering foreign languages, to be able to communicate with the rest of the world and above all to understand its complexity, must not be left aside by political leaders, nor eclipsed by technological progress (this is the point of view, which we share, defended by our reader Sven Franck (see the article “If technology replaces translation, it should not replace the need to learn several languages”).

Finally, these political and strategic developments should not make us forget the evolution of our economic system, which is transforming by detaching itself from its infusion of debt (see our section: trends, investments and recommendations) as it meets the limits of its expansion in an environment with finitudes as frustrating as they are relentless (see our article Green ecosystems: Approaching the point of no return in the global forest crisis).

In the darkest times, it is essential to rationalize our approach to the future so as not to be overwhelmed by emotions, which are completely justified. This imperative governs each of our works, and we are proud to share them with you.

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