The consensus is moving from the soft vs. hard landing debate towards how severe the hard landing will be
Nouriel Roubini -- Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor
Dec 11, 2007 -- While a few months ago analysts were still heatedly debating whether the United States would experience a soft landing or a hard landing (a recession) the center of the macro debate has now clearly shifted away from soft landing versus hard landing discussion to a recognition that a hard landing is the most likely scenario; thus, increasingly now the debate is on how deep and severe the forthcoming hard landing will be.
David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch is now clearly predicting a recession for the U.S. economy in 2008; Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs is not formally speaking of a certain recession in 2008, but most of his analysis is consistent with a high likelihood of a recession in 2008; Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com is also very close to a hard landing view.
More interesting now even the thoughtful Richard Berner -- who used to be strongly in the soft landing camp while his counterpart Steve Roach was in the hard landing camp -- is now predicting a recession in the United States in 2008, even if he expects such a recession to be mild. And even the soft-landing optimists at JPMorgan are now recognizing that the likelihood of a U.S. recession is now at its highest level in years. When mainstream analysts such as Berner start to talk about a recession beng likely you know that the debate has clearly shifted towards a discussion of not whether a recession but rather how deep of a recession.
And in the academic camp some of the most senior economists in the profession -- Bob Shiller, Marty Feldstein, Larry Summers, Paul Krugman -- are all in various degrees in the hard landing camp or very concerned about a hard landing.
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