The peak oil crisis: our 4 storms (Tom Whipple)

   Until last week, a good guess would have been that shortages in oil available for export would impact us first. This would be followed by economic decline, peak oil production, and finally a meaningful reduction in the burning of fossil fuel in response to global warming. News from the last few weeks, however, makes it look like more of a horse race.

  by Tom Whipple

  Last week I discussed how the great crisis could be thought of as four interrelated sub crises: peak oil production, peak oil exports, climate change, and economic decline. Each of these will have an impact on the others and the order in which they arrive and interact with each other is likely to have a lot to do with our lifestyles in decades to come.

  Until last week, a good guess would have been that shortages in oil available for export would impact us first. This would be followed by economic decline, peak oil production, and finally a meaningful reduction in the burning of fossil fuel in response to global warming. News from the last few weeks, however, makes it look like more of a horse race.

  Until very recently economic growth always trumped the need to curb fossil fuel consumption whenever the latter was considered. In America, the global warming discussion has always been rather theoretical. Yes, there were pictures of melting ice caps and stranded polar bears, but so far the direct impact of global warming has been limited— unless you happened to live in New Orleans or along the Gulf Coast. Last week there was news that might just bring the timetable for doing something about fossil fuel emissions back a little.

  It seems the hurricane-suppressing El Nino in the Pacific has subsided, thus increasing the risk for another bang-up hurricane season this year. If America ever does something to make major reductions in fossil fuel emissions, it is a good bet that an endless succession of hurricanes tearing up our southern and eastern coast lines just might be the catalyst for change.

  In China, the emissions-causing global warming crisis is shaping up as far more serious than in the Western Hemisphere. In large parts of China the air should not be breathed and the water not drunk or even put on the crops. To make matters worse, the air is getting dirtier and dirtier and the water available to the Chinese people is disappearing at an alarming rate. The melting of the Himalayan glaciers and persistent droughts are already causing such problems that even the growth-at-any-price Chinese government is starting to take notice. Alarming stories appear frequently in China’s press. The balance in Beijing is clearly beginning to tip in favor of reducing emissions even if economic growth has to be sacrificed.

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